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Last year, many people were content to buy time for vaccines to be developed and deployed. It also means that the virus will almost certainly be a permanent part of our lives, even as vaccines blunt its ability to cause death and severe disease. That partly explains why cases have risen so explosively. In simple terms, many people who caught the original virus didnвЂ™t pass it to anyone, but most people who catch Delta create clusters of infection. At that level, вЂњits reliance on super-spreading events basically goes away,вЂќ Scarpino said. But the CDC estimates that DeltaвЂ™s R0 lies between 5 and 9, which вЂњis shockingly high,вЂќ Eleanor Murray, an epidemiologist at Boston University, told me. Those are average figures: In practice, the virus spread in uneven bursts, with relatively few people infecting large clusters in super-spreading events. The original SARS-CoV-2 virus had a basic reproduction number, or R0, of 2 to 3, meaning that each infected person spreads it to two or three people. вЂњObviously, thatвЂ™s not where we are.вЂќ In part, he says, people underestimated how transmissible Delta is, or what that would mean. вЂњThe models in late spring were pretty consistent that we were going to have a вЂnormalвЂ™ summer,вЂќ Samuel Scarpino of the Rockefeller Foundation, who studies infectious-disease dynamics, told me. вЂњItвЂ™s the eighth month of 2021, and I canвЂ™t believe weвЂ™re still having these conversations,вЂќ Jessica Malaty Rivera, an epidemiologist at Boston ChildrenвЂ™s Hospital, told me.Д«ut something is different now-the virus. Three months later, cases and hospitalizations are rising, indoor masking is back, and schools and universities are opening uneasily-again. It stumbled into the normality trap, craving a return to the carefree days of 2019 in May, after the CDC ended indoor masking for vaccinated people, President Joe Biden gave a speech that felt like a declaration of victory. It succumbed to magical thinking by acting as if a variant that had ravaged India would spare a country where half the population still hadnвЂ™t been vaccinated. It went all in on one countermeasure-vaccines-and traded it off against masks and other protective measures.

America has fallen prey to many of the same self-destructive but alluring instincts that I identified last year. This new surge brings a jarring sense of dГ©jГ vu. is once again looping through the pandemic spiral. Now the fourth surge is under way and the U.S. And though experts looked anxiously to the fall, few predicted that the Delta variant would begin its ascent at the start of July. Many Americans began to hope that the country had enough escape velocity to exit its cycle of missteps and sickness. declined and, by summerвЂ™s edge, had reached their lowest levels since the pandemicвЂ™s start. But after vaccines arrived in midwinter, cases in the U.S. I n September 2020, just before COVID-19 began its wintry surge through the United States, I wrote that the country was trapped in a pandemic spiral, seemingly destined to repeat the same mistakes.

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